How NextGOAL's AI football analysis works: pPS and mPS explained
NextGOAL sums up every match with three numbers — the next-goal chance during play, pPS before kick-off and mPS during the match. All three run 0-100 and come from real data only, never guesswork.
⚡ What is the next-goal chance score?
The 0-100 number next to every live match: how likely a goal is in the next 15 minutes. Higher = hotter. It is a ranking score, not a literal percentage: 80 means one of the hottest spells among all matches being played right now.
What goes into it
- 1Intensity of the last 10 minutes — dangerous attacks and shots on target now, compared with the pace of the whole match (the latest spell weighs more)
- 2Momentum — which side is pushing: chasing a deficit, or holding the ball and piling on pressure
- 3Live market prices — an anchor early in the game when stats are still thin, so the number never drifts from reality
- 4Events — a red card opens the game up · after a goal the score rests for 3 minutes so the match can settle before it is measured again
Levels you see on screen
Minute 63, 1-1: the home side has 9 dangerous attacks and 3 shots on target in 10 minutes and the score climbs from 41 to 78 ⇒ the row shows “Watch” · if it crosses 80 and holds for two polls (half a minute) an alert goes out at once, and NextGOAL records whether a goal really followed within 15 minutes
This is not a percentage — matches showing 85 produced a goal within 15 minutes roughly 4 times in 10. NextGOAL grades itself every day and shows the record on the results page · treat it as a signal to open the match now, not a promise
🎯 What is pPS (Prematch Power Score)?
Each team's readiness before kick-off, 0-100, built from real past results rather than opinion · frozen about an hour before kick-off and never edited ⇒ you can always check what the system said before the game
What goes into it
- 1League form over 1 year, split by venue — home side counts home matches only, away side away matches only, and every point is multiplied by the opponent's strength (0.5-1.0): beating a strong team counts in full, beating a weak one counts half
- 2Head-to-head over 5 years — only meetings at the same venue as this one
- 3Ratings of the starting eleven — the announced line-up when available, otherwise the expected one from the last match
- 4Shared opponents — both teams faced the same sides; who did better against them
Any part with no data is dropped and the weight moves to the rest — nothing is invented · there is no neutral 50: low really is poor, high really is good
Levski Sofia (home) won six home games in a row, but four of the six came against bottom-half sides ⇒ league form scores 63, not 100 · Salzburg (away) alternated wins and losses on the road ⇒ 34 · tap the pPS number on a match page to see every match used and its weight
Look at the gap between the two teams rather than one number — 20 or more apart = clearly different readiness · under 10 = close, check other angles such as the announced line-up
📊 What is mPS (Match Power Score)?
Each team's performance during the match, 0-100, from what actually happens on the pitch, updated every minute · goals are deliberately not counted — we want to know who is playing better, not who is ahead
What goes into it
- 1Full stat sheet (55%) — sharpness first: shots on target, shooting accuracy, big chances missed and defending · possession, attacks and passing carry little weight on purpose: measured over 525 matches, the side with the ball was not the side that delivered
- 2Players on the pitch (25%) — live ratings of the eleven actually on the field that minute (substitutions change it)
- 3Events (20%) — a red card costs a lot, and more the earlier it comes · yellow −2 · missed penalty −5 · cards shown to a coach or bench staff do not count
The number next to each team on the match page is the average of the current spell, restarted after every goal (the fine dotted line on the chart); the live board shows the latest minute · at full time the value is frozen for good
Real Betis had 80% possession, 5 shots and 2 on target while Getafe had a single shot — at minute 23 mPS read 54 to 41: Betis led on shots on target and dangerous attacks, but stayed under 80 because shooting accuracy was only 40% and six fouls cost points
Read the direction of the line (▲▼ arrows) together with the number — the side whose value is rising is the side taking control, even while behind · both teams can be high (open game) or low (quiet game) at the same time
🏷️ How is this different from the odds?
Odds express the market's view; pPS/mPS measure the team's actual output. They look at the game from different angles, so NextGOAL shows both side by side. NextGOAL is not a betting platform — every number is context for watching football.
The price says the home side gives one goal, yet the pPS gap is only 5 ⇒ the market is more confident than the actual output suggests — a cue to open the details before deciding anything, not an instruction