Europe · UEFA Women's Champions League · kick-off 3 Sept 2026 01:00
Full time · score 2-1
mPS in-play performance (0-100): Real Madrid W 65 · Ajax W 24
Shots on target 10-2 · corners 9-1 · possession 49-51
NextGOAL tip: Ajax W +2.25 · 1 stars
The only meeting between the two was in Aug 26, when Ajax W lost at home 0-2. But this time the game returns to the Santiago Bernabeu, and the line opens with Real Madrid W favored by 2.25 goals, which is more than the 2-goal margin in that match. That means the market sees the hosts as clearly superior. But Ajax W's goal timing numbers show they close out games well late, scoring 21% of their total goals in the 76-90 min period. Meanwhile, Real Madrid W concede the most goals in the 61-75 min period, at 18%. So any goal Ajax W get is likely to come when the hosts ease off. This match is expected to be open and high-scoring, with a total line of 3.6 goals. But looking at possession, the hosts should control the ball for most of the game, and that's the point that forces Ajax W to sit deep and rely on counterattacks.